Longer blog post here as I flesh out how I am thinking and how I am positioning my stock portfolio…
I have two eyes, two ears, textbooks up the wazoo and a pretty smart group of people I follow and NOBODY knows what the hell has happened or will happen next in the markets.
The stock market was rigged before Trump came along and will be rigged after.
Knowing what I do and don’t know above, I still wake up everyday trying to trounce the markets. I am excited about the opportunities despite being horrified about Trump words and actions towards people and our freedom of speech.
Here is what I have seen (lot’s of charts to follow) since it became obvious Trump was going to win Tuesday night:
1. I was in Lisbon, Portugal following the elections at midnight Portugal time. I watched the New York Times election page meter switch from 88 percent Clinton win to 95 percent Trump win in about ONE hour. It blew my mind. Over the course of the next few hours the S&P futures fell over 100 points and shut down on limit losses. I was glued to $ SPY stream on Stocktwits. I could not sleep and walked around Lisbon the next day reading and watching the tape.
2. Stockcats has put together this great post outlining how WRONG all of Wall Street and main street was on the market leading up to and immediately after the election. You do not need to be a contrarian to make outside market returns but you should know how to think like one and following the right people just speeds this all up.
3. Trump believes and I think he is correct that social media helped win him the election. I believe Twitter more so. As of this moment, Twitter is up 4 percent since and Facebook down 6 percent since the election. Facebook is taking the brunt of the blame for Trump winning. It’s ridiculous of course to blame the platform. TV has been a platform of lies and deception in media since day one. The game is rigged. Just a new platform being used.
4. The USA will not be great ‘again’..it is great and it is now Trump’s to really mess up. He has a lot of power. So far the rest of the world is still flocking to US equities. The headlines say one thing, but the money flow says another:
5. The REAL ‘deplorables’ won…that is the elite banks and insurers (Warren Buffett). Wells Fargo is now at 52 week highs…the same Wells Fargo that cheats it’s customers. We just funded the stagecoach for another generation.
— Nick (@Alpha_Eye) Nov. 13 at 09:52 AM
I have long owned Charles Schwab $ SCHW and it too has romped. I have sold a little because it seems like a gift from what I expected on Wednesday morning. I expected the banks to suffer under a Trump win but it is not the case. I assume it has to do with less regulation and the infrastructure spend expected. The money to fix infrastructure will be raised by the banks. If rates rise slowly I guess banks win too. I assume dips will be bought and trying to find some fresh ideas.
FEES and GREED not ‘fear and greed’ is the new Goldman Sachs slogan under Trump
Interesting how markets work. Goldman and JP Morgan did not give a dime to Trump and threw themselves behind Hillary more than any one industry and are the quickest beneficiaries. The rust belt should be proud.
While I am nervous for the startup sector as a whole under Trump, I am cautiously optimistic for Fintech now that banks just received a 30 percent bump (hundreds of billions) to their market caps. I imagine investment in the space and acquisitions by the banks will increase.
6. As for who is getting it the worst…hello Amazon and Facebook and Google:
— Charlie Bilello, CMT (@MktOutperform) Nov. 14 at 09:22 AM
In a fact free world of Trump, nobody needs smartphones or search so I guess it makes sense.
I won’t fight these money flows at the moment into those companies (I own them all), but have added small positions in Cisco and Autodesk ($ CSCO $ ADSK). Cisco will benefit from cyber security trend and video while Autodesk is my favorite idea to catch part of the 3D movement. Both stocks have remained strong in the face of the large cap tech meltdown.
As for bonds…whoa:
— StockTwits (@StockTwits) November 14, 2016
Not sure is this is a nasty bear market move or the beginning of a change in trend towards rising rates. I will remind everyone that not too long ago our old business media favorites were talking about living in a world of negative interest rates. In the last 30 days alone the 30 year yield is up 40 percent.
and finally small is beautiful? If so and this trend change is at hand….active investing will be great again!
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) Nov. 13 at 01:28 PM
Trump has not taken office but the markets are quickly speaking.
Disclosure – Long Amazon, Google, Schwab, Autodesk, Cisco, Netflix